Hurricane Cake

Just wanted to share a picture of a really cool "Hurricane Cake" that I had tonight.

First Tropical Depression forms in the Eastern Pacific

Tropical Depression 1-E, the first tropical cyclone of the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has formed about 130 miles south of Managua, Nicaragua. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity within 24 hours. If 1-E becomes a tropical storm (40 mph winds or higher), its name will be "Alma". This depression is forecast to move very slowly to the north, bringing 10 to 15 inches of rain to parts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. These rains will be capable of producing extremely dangerous flash flooding and mud slides. Also, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the west coast of Costa Rica. A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when winds of over 40 mph, along with high seas and torrential rains, are expected within 24 hours.

Current Position and Forecast of Tropical Depression 1-E

Moderate Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on 5/26

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is forecasting a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of central and western Oklahoma, the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and the eastern Texas Panhandle. This includes parts of the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area, mainly northwest of Interstate 44. The main severe weather threats appear to be hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes will also be possible. A few thunderstorms may produce hail larger than two inches in diameter.

Day One Convective Outlook (SPC Graphic)

Tropical development this week???

With just six days until the official start to Hurricane Season 2008, models are already indicating a possibility of a developing low pressure in either the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the Yucatan Channel. Here are a few interesting quotes from National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts:

NWS Office in Lake Charles, LA: "Later next week [week of 5/26], both the GFS and ECMWF* continue to develop a...low pressure system near the Yucatan."

NWS Office in Houston, TX: "The GFS and ECMWF were different in their handling of the tropics by day seven [Saturday]. The GFS has a weakness in the ridge present over the entire Gulf Coast states. The ECMWF had a stronger ridge in place from Mexico all the way east into Florida. The GFS and ECMWF develop a surface low in the southern Caribbean by the upcoming weekend, with both models then going in different directions with the system. Given the time of year, it is best to say that the tropics bear watching."

NWS Office in Corpus Christi, TX: "What really with the upper ridge will determine where the tropical wave that most long-range models are showing decides to go early next week [week of 6/2], if this wave develops. Something to watch."

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD: "CMC, ECMWF, GFS all continue their persistent trend towards tropical cyclogenesis [development of a tropical cyclone] near Yucatan [during] mid period as models build upper-level ridging with low wind shear over Central America and Western Caribbean. HPC positioning is a model/ensemble mean locational and pressure average."

My Analysis: The main thing to keep in mind is that this is VERY far off, meteorologically speaking. Models this far out, especially on something this complex, can be very wrong, then again, I think this is something that I should keep an eye on during the next week for the following reasons:

1. Sea surface temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean range from 81 to 83 degrees, respectively. These temperatures are marginally favorable for sustaining a tropical cyclone.
   
2. GFS and NOGAPS models show a decrease in wind shear over the area; however, CMC and UKMET models maintain strong shear.

I would say conditions may be "marginally favorable" for development by the end of this week; however, there will be some inhibiting factors. Also, for anything to develop, there must be some form of external spark, a tropical wave, for example. Four tropical waves have been noted somewhere in the Atlantic Basin as of the 1:05 PM CDT 5/25 analysis from the National Hurricane Center, but none of these waves appear overly strong.

In conclusion, the best advice I can give you is to keep an eye out on the weather and know your preparation plans, just on the off chance this thing develops.

Probability of system development (5/25-6/2): less than 15% (unlikely)

Click here to enlarge!

*GFS: Global Forecast System Model
*ECMWF: European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Model
*CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center Model

Welcome to the JWC Blog!

Welcome to my new blog! This will be a place where I will share my personal thoughts on weather system across the Southern Plains of the United States, the tropics, and elsewhere. This blog is not meant to share important weather details.