Tropical development this week???

With just six days until the official start to Hurricane Season 2008, models are already indicating a possibility of a developing low pressure in either the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the Yucatan Channel. Here are a few interesting quotes from National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts:

NWS Office in Lake Charles, LA: "Later next week [week of 5/26], both the GFS and ECMWF* continue to develop a...low pressure system near the Yucatan."

NWS Office in Houston, TX: "The GFS and ECMWF were different in their handling of the tropics by day seven [Saturday]. The GFS has a weakness in the ridge present over the entire Gulf Coast states. The ECMWF had a stronger ridge in place from Mexico all the way east into Florida. The GFS and ECMWF develop a surface low in the southern Caribbean by the upcoming weekend, with both models then going in different directions with the system. Given the time of year, it is best to say that the tropics bear watching."

NWS Office in Corpus Christi, TX: "What really with the upper ridge will determine where the tropical wave that most long-range models are showing decides to go early next week [week of 6/2], if this wave develops. Something to watch."

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD: "CMC, ECMWF, GFS all continue their persistent trend towards tropical cyclogenesis [development of a tropical cyclone] near Yucatan [during] mid period as models build upper-level ridging with low wind shear over Central America and Western Caribbean. HPC positioning is a model/ensemble mean locational and pressure average."

My Analysis: The main thing to keep in mind is that this is VERY far off, meteorologically speaking. Models this far out, especially on something this complex, can be very wrong, then again, I think this is something that I should keep an eye on during the next week for the following reasons:

1. Sea surface temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean range from 81 to 83 degrees, respectively. These temperatures are marginally favorable for sustaining a tropical cyclone.
   
2. GFS and NOGAPS models show a decrease in wind shear over the area; however, CMC and UKMET models maintain strong shear.

I would say conditions may be "marginally favorable" for development by the end of this week; however, there will be some inhibiting factors. Also, for anything to develop, there must be some form of external spark, a tropical wave, for example. Four tropical waves have been noted somewhere in the Atlantic Basin as of the 1:05 PM CDT 5/25 analysis from the National Hurricane Center, but none of these waves appear overly strong.

In conclusion, the best advice I can give you is to keep an eye out on the weather and know your preparation plans, just on the off chance this thing develops.

Probability of system development (5/25-6/2): less than 15% (unlikely)

Click here to enlarge!

*GFS: Global Forecast System Model
*ECMWF: European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Model
*CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center Model